Big Mikes Saturday Column
Good morning.
Today and tomorrow I am Holding a Strategic Betting Seminar up here so the columns will be early on both days.
Gianluca Landi will be making his amazing presentation showing some of the ways he has converted 100 Euros to 42,000 Euros gradually & sensibly over the past 2 years.
I will just do maybe an hour on the Rugby bets and hedging the Each Way Double so hopefully my day won`t be too boring for the members who are turning up.
I have enclosed my `scripts` for both at the foot of todays column in the hope it may also be a help to others who find enjoyment out of this Strategic Betting we try & perfect.
Also dont forget to use the Forum for `The Bakers Dough` and I am also enclosing McRoss`s Scottish angle which again looks very good indeed.
Conditions will be a leveller again today so keep stakes trimmed please.
http://bigmikebetting.co.uk/bmbforums/chat.php
My bets today :-
Place site mines
Mines today
£10 @ 1.21 & £15 @ 1.11
Optional :-
£33 @ 1.03 (you never know – expect the unexpected!)
*** ALI BABA ***
2 x £5 win singles & £15 ew half equally divided double
Too Scoops 13:45 Fairyhouse 5/4
Dark Glacier 14:05 Newcastle 7/4
BMB
£2.50 ew Patent & extra £2 ew treble
Nowurhurlin 12:40 Haydock Park 4/1
Woody Waller 13:40 Haydock Park 9/4
Diocles 15:20 Haydock Park 9/2
HUGHIES
All at Betfair SP
£5
Rival D’estruval 14.05 Newcastle
Diocles 15:20 Haydock Park
Mines @ 1.21 for £5
SPORTS BETS
a) HEINEKEN CUP RUGBY UNION 3.40
Gloucester v Connacht
Small double result bet
£33 Gloucester minus 14 stanjames 10/11
£1.50 Gloucester to win by exactly 14 paddypower exact winning margin @ 25s
£33 Connacht Plus 16 Ladbrokes @ 10/11
£1.50 Gloucester to win by exactly 16 paddypower exact winning margin @ 22s
Margins
£6.50 Gloucester to win by 11-15 @ 5s Generally available
£6.50 Gloucester to win by 16-20 @ 5s Generally available
b) McRoss`s Scottish Notes
Decent match predictions last week, 3 out of 4 correct, but goals predictions weren’t so hot. I went for low goals largely due to weather conditions (very high winds) the couple of days before, but these relented
somewhat on the Saturday. Still, as followers of SPL football will know, these games are extremely hard to call, and I try and look for value with goals and scorelines, and hopefully some of you got some match result returns. Anyone trading during the Saturday afternoon can benefit most from
the scoreline plays potentially. If you’re looking for a simple bet, consider match outcome doubles or under/over goals doubles, or selected scoreline bets.
Saturday
Aberdeen vs Hibs. Aberdeen picked up their first away win on Monday night at St. Johnstone, a decent result, but they are inconsistent. Hibs look more promising now under their new manager.
Draw, under 2.5 goals. Good value about 0-0 (10′s) and 1-1 (7)
Hearts vs Dunfermline. Two struggling teams to be honest, though you’re always expecting Hearts to have a really good day at the office. They’re shedding players though, due to financial issues. I still see this going to the home team, narrow victory.
Home win, under 2.5 goals. 1-0 is at 6.6, 2-0 at 7.6
Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd. Very evenly matched, locked together mid table, a draw seems the sensible option. Could be goals in this one.
Draw, over 2.5 goals. 2-2 at 15.5 or how about 3-3 at 60?!
Motherwell vs St. Mirren. I’ll be at this one, and I think Well will improve on their home form to take three points. St. Mirren are no mugs though, and I expect it will be tight.
Home win, over 2.5 goals. 2-1 at 10.5 looks very good value.
Rangers vs Inverness. May not be a stroll in the park by any means but have to take a Rangers win.
Home win, over 2.5 goals. Maybe 3-0 at 8.2?
Sunday
St. Johnstone vs Celtic. Interesting. Celtic just back from creditable draw in Udine to just miss out on Europa qualification. St. Johnstone have lost two home games on trot, are understrength and under new management may find this just too tough again, though I think it could be close.
Away win, under 2.5 goals. 0-1 at 6.2 and 0-2 at 7.2
SEMINAR NOTES
A) Hedging an each way Double
The best way of showing how to play a hedge is with an actual example.
AWESOME FOURSOME
4 x £4 ew doubles
Tarn Hows 5/2 & Real Milan 8/1 12.05 Uttoxeter with Remix 7/2 & Lady Lyricist 12/1 350 Wolves
Stakes of £40 at bet365 ‘Best Odds’
In the first race Real Milan managed to win at 12/1 and Tarn Hows was placed at 5/2.
So in effect because of the price of the winner in the first race we had £52 running on the win side of both Lady Lyricist and also Remix.
I emailed all members as we had to protect this vast windfall. Neither of the two horses were expected to win so we had to retrieve something in order to live another day.
The first thing to do is to work out how much would be won if either of the doubles would have landed. At 7/2 the Remix double would have produced app £180 and if Lady Lyricist had obliged we were talking well over £1,000.
So we had plenty of oil in the tank. My initial suggestion was to retrieve stakes at least by laying £4 pre start on each horse back to Betfair. I then suggested placing mines (lays in running) and in fairness to Remix a good return was made as the horse was laid down to 2.02 on the win site. Lady Lyricist was last seen in the middle of Wolverhampton at 9pm last night so nothing back from her save the initial £4 lay.
On the place site it was a different kettle of fish as Remix – at 7/2 – in effect gave 1.7 return if placed yet was layable at 1.28 before the start. Similarly Lady Lyricist at 28/1 would be the equivalent of 6.6 on the place site yet again layable at a considerable advantage at 3.2. At a stroke both
horses could have been laid at least for £26 (Half the gross bet) and the cost would have been app £7 on Remix and just over £70 on Lady Lyricist. It may seem a lot to hedge but consider that the place return if successful from Remix would have been £35+ and on LL the place return at SP would have
been £250+ – so there was much to save.
Always remember that these huge doubles are rarely going to land – so evasive action is a must.
B) The Double Rugby Bet
This can be played in both codes of Rugby – Rugby Union & Rugby League.
We are very much dependant on the magnificent compilers of the major Bookmakers as they are very often spot on the money.
Admittedly these very clever people will be paid handsomely but it is quite amazing the number of times they forecast the results accurately.
I have therefore compiled a bet using the wisdom of the assessors both in Rugby League and rugby Union.
Although I feel I know much more about Rugby League than Rugby Union the latter game is far more predictable score wise and margin wise. Results are better too.
I basically look at the whole spread of Handicaps offered by the Bookmakers in order to concoct a bet. I look for :-
a) A Handicap difference between Bookmakers of between 2 and 6. For instance in a match between Sale & Saracens lets suggest that Ladbrokes give Sale a start of 4 whereas Hills give Sale a start of 8. In such a
scenario there is a margin difference of 4. So I would be backing Saracens MINUS 4 and Sale PLUS 8 with Ladbrokes & Hills respectively.
b) Dont forget the tie! At 16/1 its always worth backing the Handicap tie to save the bet as the number of times the assessors get their margins correct is amazing.
c) Margins. As in most games we have to settle for a miserly 2/3 point difference between Bookmakers I have had to resort to using Margins to further enhance the profitability of the bet. I try to find competitive
matches where I can in effect achieve a TEN point margin for error and if successful will achieve 2 big winning bets but sometimes 3. In fact in the past I have had 4 where I also backed the score in the middle on Paddy Powers Exact Winning Line.
d) In running. I try & play the bets on matches which are televised and therefore there is a further escape route. I refer this little move as ‘locking in’. A good example was in last nights match between Ospreys and
Saracens. I selected Saracens plus 5 as a bet for members. Saracens built up a good lead to 16-6. At this time bet365/stanjames/paddys had changed the Handicap line to an in running Ospreys PLUS 7. So I advised members to ‘lock in’ one third of their initial stake on the new In running Handicap of Ospreys Plus 7 – plus a little amount on the Handicap tie.
This move therefore gave us a position of any resultant final score of between Ospreys plus 7 and Saracens plus 5 would give us TWO big winning results. When you sit down and think that BEFORE the match EVERY bookmaker in the land was offering a final margin of between a win for Ospreys plus 3
and 5. Remember too that they are not always too far out – hence the ‘lock in’ of Ospreys plus 7 was very important. Saracens finally won the game by 3 so the original bet and the lock in both were winners.
e) A recent addition I have used is in Rugby Union where penalties are prevalent. In Rugby Union penalties will give you THREE points whereas in Rugby League just 2. Similarly Drop Goals provide three points in RU yet only 1 point in RL. Paddy Power have introduced an ‘Exact winning Margin’ line which I use quite profitably. Lets say its a tight match in prospect and the Bookmakers cannot separate the two teams and make the match a scratch affair with BOTH teams @ 10/11 or as sometimes seen at Even money.
In these matches I play an extra little bet that either team will win by 3, 6 or even 9 points. Paddy`s give odds varying from 18s to 25s in general so a little money can provide a big return.
