£12 place only on Persian Warrior 210 U 1st +£2.05 (1.18 advised)
Profit Running Total Now + £32.79
13/14
Strike Rate 92.86%
N.B. Profits are recorded at Betfair SP upto and including 13th July 2009 and then at advised stakes thereafter and are less commission.
Mike
Firstly an apology to all my blog followers for sending out yesterday’s bet to late, my Gal Fri posted the bet on the blog in plenty of time but I didn’t realise that the email update doesn’t go out instantly and gets queued by our email system. I will ensure I post the blog bets earlier in future. (My wrists have been slapped accordingly)
Awful news re Freddie Flintoff isnt it? Retiring from Test Cricket after the Ashes. Very upsetting as he is the talisman. I am hopeful that he plays on Thursday. We badly need his spirit but PLEASE Mr Strauss put him in the slips and not the outfield. Sorry but I am NOT a Strauss fan – Weak as water and not a leader so should not be Captain. Good batsman mind.
The Hughie debate. Yesterday was very enlightening. Basically those horses which landed the place bet were all supported to a price lower than the figure I took in the morning. The horses which were unplaced all drifted – some remarkably so. What does that tell us? Well you don’t have to be a ‘Rocket Surgeon’ as the garrulous Sky Rugby League commentator Barrie McDermott came out with last week. So if you see a horse drift – especially from gambling connections mentioned – then adjust your stakes downwards.
I will continue the trial as I think we are much better off this way. Again some remarkable figures seen in the Betfair price 5 minutes before the off (on short uns) v Betfair SP. The most remarkable came in the first race where the fav was 1.12 pre race (to big money) and the Betfair SP was…………1.06. Laughable. Who is making this risk free margin please? Your views are welcome and there were a few on last nights Forum and also in the Chatroom. There is an excellent thread in the Learning Zone on the forum and a first class post from phil m. Basically it should be filed away on your PC especially if using Gruss Software (which you should be doing/or similar – if you are intent in making long term profits.) Thanks phil – this is first class stuff.
As ‘tomfun’ adds – I admit that I still have a lot learn and I’ve only been at it for 44 years. Mind you Gruss has only been on the market for 2/3 years! well that is my defence anyway.
Couple of NH meetings today which gets us away from the ‘spivs’ at Lingfield & Kempton where making money is all down to the fastest finger first on the old laptop.
Decent 38/1 double yesterday in the combo and hopefully AP can give us a lot of fun & financial reward from his bet today. He has 10 rides today at Uttoxeter & Worcester all with a chance of at least placing. Amazing man. The best of all time.
Talking of the best of all time – this time Tiger Woods – brings me to my Open Golf Portfolio in today’s column. Remember the object of the exercise is to finish green on the winner on Betfair – not necessarily find the outright winner from the start. Take a look at Bookies odds before the start. I have castigated Ladbrokes for some time but in fairness the big two here (Ladbrokes & Hills) they have far better value odds than such as Coral/vcbet. Do you know Corals are not stand out top priced about any of the Golfers? Isn’t that appalling? I wonder what percentage of book they are aiming at this time?
Test match. Yes I will be Trading again and I will update when the first moves are made.
Just one ‘Live Blog Bet’ from me today:
An £12 Hughie (A place bet played via Betfair’s place markets on the horse finishing in the places i.e. 1st, 2nd, or 3rd)
£12 place only on Persian Warrior 210 U (The ground here today is similar to Stratford’s ground on Sunday so if Vacario runs I will smell a rat. Vacario was the
second leg of a double for us and after the first had won there was considerable interest from the membership only for Charlie Mann to withdraw the horse less than an hour before the race. So I shall spit my dummy out and oppose Vacario today on ground concerns at least. Since writing this churlish summary Vacario HAS indeed been taken out! Persian Warrior now short but really should win this today.) Amended price is 1.18 which I admit is not now very exciting. Raise a glass to Charlie Mann! Talk about Cotton Wool Treatment.
As always to access my full daily column of bets and trades visit my main website www.bigmikebetting.co.uk
Mike
£12 place only on Just Five 2.15 Bev 1st +£1.14 (1.10 advised and avaliable, even drifted out to 1.11 after I posted. BF SP 1.06?)
Running Total Now + £30.74
12/13
Strike Rate 92.3%
N.B. Profits are recorded at Betfair SP upto and including 13th July 2009 and then at advised stakes thereafter and are less commission.
Mike
Good afternoon. Hughies (Place Bets). Major change today. Basically we being completely shafted by using betfair SP in a way like Ladbrokes are using the SP Bookmakers to drive down the price just before the race.
In effect – and there has been a good discussion in ‘the Learning Zone’ on the Forum (please add your own thoughts) where there are some interesting
theories. I think ‘phil m’ is near to being correct. My belief is that a few minutes before the off a price is taken on the shorties and then laid off at betfair SP. Invariably the price taken is matched in full but 4/5 ticks below the price taken!
Now is this the work of genuine layers or indeed somebody close to Betfair? Whoever it is will be making a guaranteed stack every race where there are shortuns. Its a nice little business if you can get it as the race hasnt started before they are matched. Try it yourself just for a few quid. Bet £33 on a horse say at 1.31 just before the race. Lay at Betfair SP £10 and see the results. Just for comparison mind and proof for yourself that this stunt is indeed going on.
Yesterday I was very happy until the Bumper at Killarney. Remember I can only suggest bets on form lines. I do not have a ‘mole’ in every yard nor do I pretend to. However Red Badge’s effort at Killarney was a disgrace and twilight robbery. Owned, ridden and trained by the same connections the horse ON FORM should have waltzed into a place. The jockey did his best to hide during the race taking the horse from wide outside – into the pack – then outside again – the same process being used several times adding many lengths to the distance. The eye catching thing was the Betfair SP. Plenty of 129 availble on the market pre race and the Betfair SP? 124. I know its irrelevant to backers but somebody is taking a huge profit every time these anomolies occur.
Another busy week in store. The Open Golf at Turnberry and the Second Test at Lords. A Couch Potato week for many. Nap!
Just one ‘Live Blog Bet’ from me today:
An £12 Hughie (A place bet played via Betfair’s place markets on the horse finishing in the places i.e. 1st, 2nd, or 3rd)
£12 to place on: Just Five 215 Bev (Looks the winner IF allowed to be. However one has come out making it a daft price but I am now committed to the bet – first 3 apply) 1.10
As always to access my full daily column of bets and trades visit my main website www.bigmikebetting.co.uk
Mike
Yesterday I mentioned my concern at the poor prices being achieved through using Betfair’s place market starting price option.
As I stated the BF SP on Candle only 1.2 (1.27 was clearly available and matched all morning), which was not good however it got worse.
The BF SP on another Hughie selection from my daily column ‘Eastern Surprise’ was only 1.16 , which was a complete joke as 1.22/1.23/1.25 were clearly there to be matched all morning. (I got matched at 1.25 myself)
On the 28th June we had a Hughie place Bet a horse called On Right option one of my members was watching the market that day and made the following notes. He personally had £135 matched easily at 1.25 (a further £3037 was matched at 1.25, followed by £3530 matched at 1.24 and a further £4622 at 1.22) the price sat at 1.22/1.24 just before the off yet the BF SP recorded was only 1.17. Where did that come from?
An £8 Hughie bet at a price of 1.25 = a £2 profit, an £8 Hughie bet at 1.16 = a £ 1.28 profit. Multiply that over all the Hughie place bets during the month and that kind of difference (which I estimate will be about a 25% reduction in profits) would seriously hurt.
It is possible, that some of the place Layers, instead of just laying at the market rate, have cottoned on to a wheeze whereby on the shorties they will put a price stipulation in, i.e. on a 1.25 to place shot – they’ll specify no higher than say 1.17. If demand then exceeds supply, they will get it layed at 1.17
I also think that some of this maybe being caused by the each way part of the bookies money as well – in effect achieving a profit on the place terms.
But whatever it is – its happening and a potential 25% reduction is not helping our place betting profits.
So on reflection I have as of today decided to start reporting and recording my Hughie place bet selections with an advised price that I will have taken (in the case of the Live Blog Bets, I will quote the price that is available on Betfair as I publish the post.)
I am also recommending that both my members and blog followers STOP using Betfair’s SP with immediate effect and instead start taking an early price.
Mike
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