Archive for September, 2009

Big Mike’s Thursday Evening Thoughts and Live Blog Bet

Thursday, September 17th, 2009

European Footie yet again tonight but very much Europeans answer to the Johnstone Paints Cup – Even the Mighty Citeh didnt even qualify for the Europa as the garrulous Mark Hughes plans to rule the world rather than just East Manchester. His next test of course is to find a striker fit enough to take on the Reds on Sunday which should be quite a game and hopefully we will have £100 at stake so I suppose it was one way of bribing errant members to follow the Blues this season. Having said that of course we are on them via the Handicap at the start of the season so lets hope we can land that 15/1 bet at least.

I believe this is the longest period in the year when no National Hunt meetings are held so if we can tread water this week I will be more than happy.

Just one Live Blog Bet from me today an £12 Hughie (A bet on the horse to finish placed i.e. 1st, 2nd or 3rd and is played via Betfair’s place markets)

£12 place only on Expressive 810 Wolves (Has been there and thereabouts on the AW whereas short priced fav has no experience here so worth looking at the alternative here with Sir Michael still in grand form.) pitching at 1.20

Price at the end is price to take or if pitching and if not taken then bet 5 mins pre race at best. Obviously take care & adjust when drifting substantially or if horses are taken out.

As always to access my full daily column of bets and trades please visit my main site at www.bigmikebetting.co.uk or to sign up as a free member enabling you to receive the occasional complimentary daily column from me, you can contact my Gal Friday – Luan at luan7677@hotmail.com and she will set this up for you.

Mike

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Betting On Autopilot: Gruss Betting Assistant

Monday, September 14th, 2009

Editor’s Note: This is the first in a series of five fantastic articles written by guest blogger Mike Bishop of The Secret Betting Club. To enable you to enjoy more similar posts written by Mike Bishop a link to the Secret Betting Club is provided at the end of this article.

ENJOY! - Mike Marsland

Service Name: Gruss Betting Assistant
Website: http://www.gruss1-software.co.uk/
Summary of findings

  • Low-cost betting bot software.
  • Relatively easy to use, stable to run and offers good functionality.
  • Free month-long trial available for new users
  • Works well with automating the placement of bets for a number of SBC recommended services.

Product Overview

Betting Bots are becoming more and more accessible these days and one of the most
popular products is that developed by Gruss Software.

Gruss Software is run by 2 brothers, Gary and Mark Russell, with the former using his
computer programming background to develop a solution to automate betting
procedures. This was called Gruss – (as in Gary RUSSell) and was originally supplied for
free between 2005 and 2007.

To enable full time support and development, a small fee was introduced in 2007,
which now stands at an affordable £6 per month (or £72 per year) for use. There is also
a free month’s trial available so you can test the water before purchasing should you so
desire.

The product is officially called ‘Betfair Betting Assistant’ and is offered for sale along
with a Betdaq equivalent, for those who like to bet elsewhere (The Betdaq program is
free). For the purposes of this review we focus on the Betfair program, which like it or
lump it, is the daddy of all betting exchanges.

Gruss is easy to download and install (although you do need the latest windows
framework installed – a link to which is available on their website).

Once Installed

Although it will take a while to get used to, Gruss offers some great functions.

There are a couple of ports of call to help get you started, the first being the
dedicated help section that is delivered with the software. Additionally there is a large
forum full of frequently asked questions that may well help you if you get a bit stuck
when starting off. The help section of the forum features over 900 topics and 4250+
posts so there is a lot there to assist you.

If downloading and installing Gruss, do take the time to read how the product works
and what it can do for you. By spending 30 minutes doing this, it could well save you a
lot of extra time in the future and maybe even improve your profit margins on Betfair.

Once installed, Gruss offers solutions to help with a whole variety of betfair betting
methods, depending on your needs.

Here is a list of just some of the features on offer:

  • Login and place bets via different Betfair accounts.
  • Have multiple markets open and active, which you can switch easily between using the tab format.
  • One click betting, with the option to take a profit (or minimize loss) quickly.
  • Adjust the method of staking (for example fixed, liability and stop loss staking).
  • Adjust the refresh rate of the Betfair market.
  • Place conditional bets (I.e. if a bet meets a certain criteria).
  • Dutch betting, fill of kill, tick offset options.
  • Price history graphs
  • Weight of money indicator which shows the money being placed on each selection.
  • Specific trading mode option.
  • Field bets (back or lay the whole field).
  • Triggered betting with link to Excel (more about this later)

Visually Gruss won’t win many awards, but it is functional and does a fine job
especially bearing in mind the low cost.

Below is a screenshot of the full screen of Gruss with a market open. On the left hand
side is the usual dropdown menu of Betfair markets, allowing you to select the event
you wish to bet upon. Across the top are a variety of further options allowing you to
quickly alter settings as you wish. Below is a screen grab of the whole Gruss screen
with a market loaded.

screenshot one

The next image below is that of an actual live market in close-up, this one is the
2.10pm at Kempton (Shown in Mike’s local Australian time).

screenshot two

You can see the 3 prices for both bet and lay markets as per the usual Betfair
interface. In addition there is a WOM (Weight of Money) indicator, Price history graph
and options such as reverse bets & dutching.

You can also add other features (not seen in the image above) such as projected SP,
reduction factor, last priced matched & total matched. You can pick and choose what
you want to see on your market interface via the preferences menu, which is a handy
option.

You are also a number of additional features such as viewing the usual price over time
information per selection (as the image below). There are also options to view a
moving average and candlestick graph per selection as well.

screenshot three

The ability to place a conditional bet via Gruss is also most welcome, as this offers real
flexibility in terms of placing a bet only if it meets your specific criteria.

For example; if you wanted to back a selection only if it meets certain price criteria, or
after a certain time, you can easily do this.

Have a look at the screenshot below to view how easy it is to do this. You can simply
enter the price range between which you wish to bet, what price you wish to take. You
can even set the trigger time for the actual bet, and request a tick offset if required.

screenshot four

It uses logical statements which cause certain action. If you can’t quite read the image
above, the drop down boxes from left to right read as follows:

Selection Check Price IF Price (price 2) Bet type Bet price Stake Trigger after
Liberty Trail Last Price matched > 1.01 Back Last price blank 23:40

Translated into English this means that the bot is looking at the last price matched on
Liberty Trail. If this is greater than 1.01 (>), then back at the last price matched. This
order is set to trigger from 23.40 (Australian time for Mike).

Or in simple terms, the bot will back the selection at 23.40 which is 10 minutes before
the off. 1.01 is chosen because every price is above this. If you wanted to, you could
set it to back only if a certain price is available.

Gruss In Action

We had no problems with the stability of Gruss on our computers, and it didn’t appear
to eat up too much memory or processor usage. It has yet to crash once whilst we have
used it, and we do put our computers through the mill with a lot of programs open at
once!

One downside is that there isn’t a save option to keep a record of any bets you have
lined up, if you do decide to re-start your computer at any time. If you are likely to do
a lot of intensive action with Gruss each day, it may be worth having a standalone
computer to perform its tasks. After all you do need to keep your computer running for
as long as you have bets you wish to place.

After we became acquainted with Gruss, it was fairly straightforward to place a
number of bets to certain criteria, and we were impressed with some of the options in
return for its pricing. The depth you can go to when utilizing the triggered betting
when aligned with Excel is a great feature, which we also feature in more depth later
on in this issue.

There are other options on the market such as Bet Bot Pro, Grey Horse Bot and Bet
Angel, but for us the value for money from using Gruss is excellent. It’s a neat bit of kit
and well worth taking advantage of the 30 day free trial if you have an interest in
automating your own betting.

The next instalment in this series will discuss how to use Gruss to take pre-race Betfair prices.

As promised if you would like to discover who are the good the bad and the ugly of the tipster world here is the link to the Secret Betting Clubs website: Secret Betting Club.

Mike Marsland FCA is the internets leading authority on strategic betting techniques. Visit his blog and signup free to get blog updates by email, along with profit-boosting tips, tried and tested betting strategies along with free advice, live blog bets, additional resources and a lot more! Go now to www.bigmikebetting.com/blog

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Big Mike’s Blog Bet Result (Sunday)

Sunday, September 6th, 2009

£8 Place only on William Wishes 3.00 W 3nd +£2.28 Profit Running Total Now +£48.63

29/34

Strike Rate 85.29%

N.B. Profits are recorded at Betfair SP upto and including 13th July 2009 and then at advised stakes thereafter and are less commission.

Mike Marsland FCA is the internets leading authority on strategic betting techniques. Visit his blog and signup free to get blog updates by email, along with profit-boosting tips, tried and tested betting strategies along with free advice, live blog bets, additional resources and a lot more! Go now to www.bigmikebetting.com/blog

Like this blog post? Buy me a coffee or send me a tip!

Big Mike’s Sunday Thoughts and Live Blog Bet

Sunday, September 6th, 2009

Better day all round on Saturday so feeling a bit perkier today. The Oxx Roast Combo Return of £150+ was the catalyst to my mood this morning after a poor week. The Turbos finished the week down by £124.67p so the Revised Bank there is £1875.33p. Mrs Marsland has ticked me off this morning so I will be studying even more over the coming week.

Fields look a bit better today.

Just one Live Blog Bet from me today an £8 Hughie (A bet on the horse to finish placed i.e. 1st, 2nd or 3rd and is played via Betfair’s place markets)

£8 place only on William’s Wishes 300 W (beaten by Hendo’s Erzen in the Spring when backed. Erzen then went on to complete a classy double so ability there with Williams Wishes. (FAV is useful but VERY short.) Pitched at 1.30

Price at the end is price to take or if pitching and if not taken then bet 5 mins pre race at best. Obviously take care & adjust when drifting substantially or if horses are taken out.

As always to access my full daily column of bets and trades please visit my main site at www.bigmikebetting.co.uk or to sign up as a free member enabling you to receive the occasional complimentary daily column from me, you can contact my Gal Friday – Luan at luan7677@hotmail.com and she will set this up for you.

Mike

Like this blog post? Buy me a coffee or send me a tip!

Predictions, Football and Profit – Take a Different View and Make The Bets That Pay

Sunday, September 6th, 2009

The football predictions I am about to share with you are absolutely guaranteed to be correct, an astonishing claim, but I can assure you one I can back-up! Prepare to be amazed by these laser accurate predictions, Nostradamus eat your heart out:

Prediction Number 1

The first prediction is coming to me now through the mist, I can see a football match, several football matches, yes now I can see clearly, my amazing prediction is….in most games someone will score a goal (92%). What do you mean that’s rubbish! OK prediction number 2 is even better.

Prediction Number 2

I see a pitch and teams, lots of teams, and they are scoring goals, I can see exactly how many they are scoring……they will score……. 2.7 goals per game. What? Not good enough for you?

OK, even I’m getting bored with this now, but the point is a serious one. You will see hundreds of soccer tipping websites giving predictions for games, goals etc but obviously no one knows for sure exactly what is going to happen in any given match. What we do know however, are the hard and fast statistics surrounding the game.

And this applies not just to football, but for all sports. If you are prepared to do the ground work, research the statistical information surrounding a sport and contrast it with the prices and markets available, it is quite possible to pick up anomalies, or areas that show promise from a strategic betting approach. It was not that long ago that the “hole-in-one” gang were able to back at prices of 100/1 on an occurrence that should have been priced at even money!

Now I’m not saying that you will find such amazing pricing errors, but being armed with the statistics gives you the ability to apply a strategic approach to your betting, cover the most likely outcomes and identify the value. In-play football trading is a perfect medium to exploit this and gives us ample opportunity to cover multiple options across several markets and plenty of opportunities to minimize losses if things don’t go our way. All backed up by the statistical information we know before the game starts.

For instance, and I’m afraid I can’t divulge the exact market, but there is an occurrence in tennis that should be statistically priced at around 20/1 but is routinely available to lay at 10/1 or less! Now if someone can find a pricing discrepancy like this in a fairly high volume market, imagine what could be found if you delve deeply into the thousands of subsidiary markets surrounding hundreds of lesser known sports and sporting events.

By doing the groundwork, knowing the statistics and betting selectively these opportunities are ripe for exploitation. Happy Hunting!

Mike Marsland FCA is the internets leading authority on strategic betting techniques. Visit his blog and signup free to get blog updates by email, along with profit-boosting tips, tried and tested betting strategies along with free advice, live blog bets, additional resources and a lot more! Go now to www.bigmikebetting.com/blog

Like this blog post? Buy me a coffee or send me a tip!