I always get very excited about bets which `look` the part, such as at Ffos Las. 12.45.
Here we have – which on the face of it – looks a classic `Golden Goose`. They come along maybe 2 or 3 times a year. Bookies hate them. I can assure you this morning that all Stationers in West Wales will run out of brown envelopes as the layers will be looking to reduce the race to less than 5 runners, which of course will scupper the trade.
If the unlikely happens and 5 run (!) then the bet works like this.
Captain Sharpe.
Play £100 ew at BOG which is 7/1 with bet365.com
Concentrate on the Place side.
At SP the 7/1 is equivalent to 2.8 ish The Lay Price on Betfair is 1.3. So via SP / BOG if placed you will pick up £175 for £100 place stake. If you lay £200 back to Betfair it will cost you £60.
So if the horse places you pick up a net £115 and if unplaced you will pick up a net £100 (£200 less £100).
Now on the win side its more difficult. Here you are relying on a subsidy from the place bet and also a bit of in running support from the lemmings.
The first thing to do is assess your profit if the horse wins which will be £700 at BOG. Then pre start you must change your focus into `liability`. Try and lay back as much as you can for a Liability of £400. I think you will get about £60 back via betfair at current prices.
Then you are reliant on the lemmings to retrieve the balance of your £100 as this bet in effect is geared to the place winnings. So I would suggest mines at 6.2, 5.2,4.2 & 3.2 and just in case a big one at 1.7.
Its a purely mathematical exercise and geared to the place site BUT all this is useless (as I suspect) brown envelopes will show their face before 12.45.
Good luck if popping your toes in the water.
The Nina Carberry advice was well worth heeding wasn`t it? Her horse was Never put in the race whilst she was on the likeliest winner. Hope you took advantage of the Betfair Place site!
So its a pretty lukewarm day but I am definitely going to trade the Charlton match tonight via the Chatroom.
Forum can be found on :-
http://bigmikebetting.co.uk/bmbforums/chat.php
and ALL members are welcome.
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My Bets today
NB Watch out for NRs today – use betfair if seen please.
Usual Place mines to save stakes at 1.21 and 1.11 – risk a fiver liability (in total on the two place lays) and if confident increase the bet size a tad to cover for these lays.
Obviously if the horse starts under 1.21 take the best price pre race.
PLEASE just take a few seconds of your time to place the lays in the Betfair keep.
BOG prices shown
*** ALI BABA ***
£20 ew Double but played equally divided today. I would suggest that if 5 run in the 1245 then you lay the full £20 back to the place site pre start for cover and a tad more at 1.21.
Captain Sharpe 12.45 Ffos Las 7/1
Azione 14:55 Ffos Las 11/10
ALI BABA #2
75% stakes
2 x £5 win singles & £10 ew equally divided double
Joseph Lister 13:30 Folkestone 4/1
Manor Court 16:00 Ffos Las 2/1
HUGHIES
£10
Joseph Lister 13:30 Folkestone @ 1.45 min
(Mine @ 1.15 for £11)
SPORTS BETS
FOOTBALL
CHARLTON V HUDDERSFIELD
43 match winning run for the Terriers so surely a small lay on Charlton is appropriate.
£8 @ 2.46
As mentioned above I will be playing a trade as well in the match (from 730) in the Chatroom.
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