Big Mikes Wednesday Column
If you have read War & Peace then todays column will be easy on the eye.
For Racing Post readers like myself though its quite a long column.
If you want to read the spiel later then skip to the bets below but do read
the first column of the season when you have time as there is a lovely
unsolicited testimonial from my Racing Compiler which I have repeated in
full. Its very much appreciated as Dave (the compiler) has put things
into laymans language on what we are all about here at Strategic Betting.
I have posted his response near the bottom of todays piece and have also
included some latest news from the betting Exchanges.
OK – the Big Mike season ended with a bang and for some members a huge
return. I had a great email from a pensioner member who has been with me
for 6 years or so. He started back then betting the Hughies only using a
bank of £500. His maximum bet is/was 5% of the ongoing bank and he used
this bank to pay his subscriptions as well. So in the intervening years
the lad had amassed a betting bank of £2600 so his daily spend would be a
maximum of £130 and he would bet proportionately on the selections.
Yesterday I gave 7 horses so he craftily placed these in one Combination
bet totalling a stake of £84 & then bet the two main winning Doubles
elsewhere but at reduced stakes from the figures I showed in Tuesday`s
column.
Here is his bet :-
1 2.20 Newton Abbot Joan D’arc 5/2 Won
2 3.50 Newton Abbot La Soie 9/2 Placed
3 4.30 Ripon Abzolutely 1/1 Won
4 5.30 Newton Abbot Havingotascoobydo 5/2 Won
5 6.40 Southwell Bivouac 7/2 Won
6 7.40 Southwell Indian Valley 7/1 Placed
7 7.40 Southwell Minortransgression 25/1 Placed
He uses bet365 BOG (as hopefully everyone does or via vcbet/stan james
etc)
20 x £2 ew Doubles & £2 ew accumulator returned £395.99p. All credit to
him and maybe an idea for all of us.
BOG. I have to say for the new season it’s a MUST for everyone.
Ladbrokes continue to make a mockery of Starting prices by flooding the
market on the jollies just before many races begin. A good point in
question was Havingotascoobydo where we managed quite easily may I add a
BOG of 5/2. The SP after manoeuvres by men in coats? A derisory 10/11.
Remember if you want to bet properly and professionally you must take
EVERY advantage against the layers. So open extra accounts with all
Bookmakers offering BOG – there is NO other way to go.
Neil has also updated the main site with some stuff so please inspect :-
http://www.bigmikebetting.co.uk/results/
when you have time. The first picture looks like Tony Blair (oveh) reading
his description of Gordon Brown.
So what changes will the new season bring? Well hopefully I will appear
on the Forum Chatroom most afternoons and inform when I see `special` money
from gambling yards. I may also suggest extra bets having seen the money
from certain quarters. Additionally for layers I will suggest some lays if
the yard isn’t behind the horse in question. Please try & join me on the
Forum as there are many professionals who post on there and remember its
all within the subscription fee.
The DD will now continue at a stake of £120 but the following extra Rules
are now embedded in the Daily Selection :-
a) All Doubles are placed HALF equally divided and HALF straight.
b) The second single of any DD is NOT played if there is a return from
the first horse.
c) Often I will place WIN lays & sometimes PLACE lays in running on
the first horse and these will be given in the column. I will stipulate
as and when I play the bet this way.
d) BOG Applies (mine are with b365) on ALL bets (inc other disciplines
as well)
e) Use BETFAIR whenever <8 run whenever 3 spots for the place are
available on Betfair.
NB Re ALI BABA bets points a) b) & d) are replicated as above.
Todays A La Carte Menu (Just pick the bets which suit your psyche and
bettingbank)
*** DOUBLE DIAMOND *** (£120)
2 X £20 singles & £40 ew double (played as above)
a) The Fox’s Decree 14:10 Hereford (6/4)
And
b) Whereveryougoigo 17:10 Hereford (1/1)
NB IN RUNNING `Mines` – use the Betfair `keep` facility :-
a) Laying £25 on the WIN site on Betfair on The Fox’s Decree @ 1.4
b) Laying £50 on the PLACE site on Betfair on The Fox’s Decree @ 1.06
c) Laying £25 on the PLACE site on Whereveryougoigo @ 1.12
d) Laying £50 on the WIN site on Betfair on Whereveryougoigo @ 1.2 ONLY
if The Fox’s Decree WINS the 14.10 race.
The point of the mines is to use the extra profits from BOG to safeguard
our `investment`. Hopefully all lays are taken each time and the horse
wins but sadly over the year that will not be the case. A good adage is
`leave a bit for the next man`. In other words – don’t gamble or be
greedy and just keep amassing profits the safe way.
DUNLOP (£65)
2 x £10 ew singles & £12.50 ew Double
Christmas Aria 15:00 Brighton (10/1)
and
Flying Johnny M 15:40 Hereford (4/1)
ALI BABA (£40)
2 x £5 win singles & £15 ew double
Saxonette 15:50 Lingfield Park (3/1)
Tenessee 18:20 Kempton Park (15/8)
SINGLE
£3 ew Hero From Zero 18:50 Kempton Park (6/1)
RAMBO
21 x £1 ew doubles & £0.50p ew acca (18,111/1 with b365!)
The 7 above
HUGHIES
£10
Saxonette 15:50 Lingfield Park
£5
Christmas Aria 15:00 Brighton
RINGMASTER
£30 PLACE ONLY on Saxonette 15:50 Lingfield Park @ Betfair SP with a `mine`
for £30 @ 1.15 in the Betfair Keep.
The object of this long term profitable bet is to build up profits for the
first 2/3 horses in a sequence THEN take away the original £30 stake so we
are playing with OPIUM (Other Peoples Money) in a quest to reach £100 –
then start again. Its for the Ultra Cautious.
SPORT
Firstly in Rugby (both codes) the TV bill for the next few days looks very
exciting and I will be looking for value bets in some of them :-
Wednesday 1st September
17:00 Montpellier v Toulouse ESPN
17:30 Women’s World Cup Semi Final Sky Sports 3
19:45 Racing Metro v Clermont ESPN
20:00 Women’s World Cup semi final Sky Sports 3
Thursday 2nd September
19:30 Leigh v Sheffield Sky Sports 4
Friday 3rd September
18:00 Lions v Western Province Sky Sports 4
19:05 Glasgow Warriors v Leinster BBC ALBA
19:05 Ulster v Ospreys BBC1 Northern Ireland
Saturday 4th September
06:30 Northland v Southland Sky Sports 1
08:30 North Harbour v Waikato Sky Sports 1
13:15 London Irish v Saracens ESPN
16:00 Wasps v Harlequins ESPN
16:00 South Africa v Australia Sky Sports 3
16:30 Hull FC v Leeds Rhinos Sky Sports 1
18:00 Blue Bulls v Sharks Sky Sports 3
18:30 Cardiff Blues v Edinburgh S4C
18:45 St Helens v Castleford Tigers Sky Sports 1
Sunday 5th September
14:30 Northampton v Leicester Sky Sports 3
17:00 Women’s World Cup Final Sky
a) RUGBY UNION
i) Racing Metro v Clermont (On TV so remember b365 etc bet in run)
£22 Clermont Auvergne (+6.0) @ 10/11 pp
£1 Handicap tie @ 20/1 pp
£5 Racing Metro to win by 6-10 @ 5/1 Ladbrokes
Profits unless Clermont lose by 11+
ii) La Rochelle v Toulon (Not televised)
The big spenders visit the West Coast and really should win well.
£22 Toulon -5 @ skybet 10/11
£1.50 Handicap tie @ 16s
£4.50 Toulon by 1-5 @ 11/2 sky
Profits unless Toulon lose.
b) TENNIS
The lazymans did well yet again on Tuesday. The problem in this Tourney
is of course Volume with so many matches taking place at one time.
Todays lay in running :-
Chela v Lu
Laying £20 on Chela @ 1.43
Laying £16 on Lu @ 1.65
TESTIMONIAL FROM MY RACING COMPILER in answer to the kind post by Nandan.
http://tipsterz.co.uk/big-mike-betting-review/comment-page-1/#comment-5
NB I am reproducing today as to me some comments are far more succinct than
I ever make re what the service is all about. I am not trying to
emphasise praise here just pointing out that if you want to punt
PROFESSIONALLY & PROFITABLY then you need TIME to plan. 12 months Dave
suggests – I think maybe 5 years is better!!
Here is Daves piece :-
# David W on August 29, 2010 at 8:05 am:
First,I must declare an interest here. I am the guy who updates the results
+ P&L for the Racing arm of this service. No one asked me to write a
testimonial but as I`ve done this job for at least 7 years now I feel
qualified to comment and indeed expand on what`s already been written
above. (Nandan`s comments on the link)
Mike’s pretty much unique in this game. He can sniff out value from a 100
paces and comes up with simply unique bets that are designed to extract
that value for the least possible risk.
Ever heard of the half straight/half equally divided E/W Double? Well
neither has any bet settler software so I have to do them on a calculator
and I hate Bank holidays as these bets multiply like mushrooms. However,
they retrieve stakes so often that they are a staple of the service.
Every year Mike comes up with at least a couple of new `stick it to the
bookie` type bets but also, some lose there edge over time.
My personal fav was the 2 way Rugby bet which was where the bookies opinion
differed on the hcp so you couldnt lose – say a £100 bet either side £200
staked but would only get £180 back if the hcp didnt get hit. When it did
you made £180 profit for an actual £20 risk, Never satisfied Mike did a Tie
bet on top which made for some spectacular payouts for very small risk.
Bookies got hit so hard that these bets are rare now and Mike likely was
the major factor. Rugby markets are over 1000 times smaller than Soccer and
likely to remain so until we win the Rugby World Cup again.
The first 2 years were pretty rocky. Not for profits but because so many
people just want a tipping service.
Mike’s outlook is that people should learn to think for themselves and
eventually understand the techniques used.
Its simple really. Once a Punter understands the concept of ‘Value’, he
will never bet the same way again and year-on-year will always make money.
Those who joined and learned Pro punting tended to leave the service and
those who just wanted tips tended to leave because the bets took too much
time to actually place every day.
This all changed when the forum was implemented and nowadays (and I think
most forum regulars would agree) Members would pay the fees for access to
the forum alone, such is the quality of the people there.
I myself joined his service close to the start and it also coincided with
me starting work with a Pro football punter whom I became a runner for.
Neither man has met & the Pro punter demands a low profile. But both these
guys bet in unique ways that keep bookies on the hop and therefore keep
extracting cash from them.
Being piggy in the middle has been very beneficial too me and its why I
continue to put up with the frustration of so much manual bet settling.
If you can commit to 12 months of learning the methods and techniques
provided by this service, you will find yourself making a lot of money.
Like anything worthwhile, it does take time to learn not only the unique
bets but then to understand why that bet type was used for a particular
event or race.
Some methods are much easier than others and Pro punting is an education
not a tipping service. The daily emails are really to get you up & running
quickly but the education will be what changes your life.
If you can commit to 12 months and lets say just 30 minutes a day in the
forum, your eyes will be opened to a completely different way of betting
but you will be a different person too.
You wont hang around a bookies all day for company sharing hard luck
stories, the mentality is totally different.
When you understand the concept of ‘Value’, you can see Poor Value as well
as Good Value. Then you will have to actually workout a daily route just to
spread your bets around town.
As I say, its a whole new lifestyle but a very profitable one.
Finally, the Pro’s in the forum will help any member they feel is keen to
learn & after 12 months you’ll rejoin simply to maintain forum access even
though there’s so much else.
Just one piece of advice though, spend your first 2/3 weeks reading your
start up materials and previous forum posts first. So many questions you
may have when you first sign up are well covered already there and its a
sign of laziness not to actually read old threads or use the search
facility to see if your query has already been asked.
The forum is now ‘the’ place for pro punters to gather nowadays and they
are really very friendly. But please dont abuse their hospitality.
Search first, if no luck, then ask and you’ll be fine.
Be warned though, This is no Tipping service, its actually a degree level
education in becoming a professional punter once learned, never forgotten.
The upside is financial and gaining a new set of genuine loyal friends with
a like mindset. You view the world through new eyes and see how gullible we
were before.
The downside is having to actually split up bets between bookies for
stealth and eventually stake size. You’ll know you’ve made the transition
when you have your first bet refused & then get barred from the shop. Later
on though its downright frustrating when you actually have to travel to
another town to place your bets.
Ive done this for 10 years now but have had to travel for the last 2 to get
anything on.
You just have to accept it comes with the territory.
- – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - -
Betting Exchanges as at Noon
Interesting Moves seen – REMEMBER many may well be `phantom` gambles where
connections use their own accounts to bet down a horse in a quest for big
lays later – so you MUST check to see prices before the off to ensure the
trend is continuing. Why do they use their own accounts? Well it
costs them only the Betfair Commission on winners doesn’t it? Otherwise
no hard cash handed over.
Brighton
2.30
4 out already and bare 8 run so watch out – Mushy Peas well backed here
for an in form yard.
3.00
World and his wife backing Auden to 2/5 – not for me – preferring ew
elsewhere. 8 run.
3.30
No NRs here as 7 run (no shock there then) – Buxton @ 5/2 could be the one
as 7 x £500
+ bets seen so far. Gambling yard.
5.00
Phluke is backed to 3/1 in a place (4/1 b365) and is worth monitoring from
this yard.
Hereford
3.10
Quite liked Tegan Lee here but little money seen so far (9/2) and no doubt
punters awaiting the news of a NR.
3.40
Winter Star is the one to watch here – Williams has been searching for the
right race for some time but I am opposing elsewhere. 5/2 now and
interesting as a saver if more money seen.
4.10
Well we know the prolific Timocracy is fit from the Flat but easy to back
here @ 9/2 but surely a value punt or even a `shyster` bet (bet win lay
place) – Nicholls has the fav @ 2/1 and its solid.
Lingfield
3.20
Kokkokila backed into 7s and is lightly raced this time but these
connections always worth noting.
3.50
Ex Hannon horse Two Feet of Snow is backed by Joe Public into 11/10 – I am
opposing though with the Channon horse at 3/1 but would be concerned if
that drifted much more.
4.20
Henry Candy has two here – Millden we have seen but stable jockey Dane
O`Neill rides Speedy Xaara which is 13/2 and is worth looking at again at
4.19 just in case there is money for the horse.
ATB Mike
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