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Big Mikes – Tuesday Thoughts

Firstly I am heartily pleased that so many of you seem to enjoy the tack we are using – Hughies & Trading – to make the money.

Racing remains very tricky as was shown by the Crafty Combo I put forward yesterday. We were in good shape after Gremlin finished 2nd at 14/1 and I
then posted in the Chat Room that you should take evasive action on the other two horses via the place site in order to at least recover stakes. I know many of you did so and it just shows how important it is to use such a strategy in combination betting. The latter two in the treble ran abysmally. In fact from despair comes hope.

One astute member has noted a few of the early Hughie selections are from Gambling Yards where good money is seen (by me) early doors – signifying AT THAT TIME that the horse is ‘off’. I have said many times that connections change their plans during the day and also their stance may have changed from a horse trying to win to one which will finish 4th thus justifying some place laying later in the day.

So how do we identify such situations? Well its not easy of course but from a proofing stance I will have to stand by a Hughie win or lose but YOU can use a bit of common sense or flexibility come the race. What I will do is place an asterisk (*) next to a horse which may drift and become a ‘NO HUGHIE’. Anyway I will give it a try to see if it works. One can only achieve a better service by making changes where weaknesses are seen. Always email me with your thoughts on how the service can be improved. I am a very flexible man and want to achieve more prosperity for you all. I have always said that I view the service as a ‘Members’ Club and the Faro sojourns prove that we have many like members in the service.

The two horses which let us down in the Crafty Combo yesterday ran – as I said – appallingly. From what I had seen previously there was a good chance of
Izzy Lou achieving a place without too much trouble. However the big price drift from the Ryan yard told the tale that it was not ‘off’ and we were in Dickies Meadow. (Dickies Meadow basically means ‘in the fertilizer’ & is a saying from Lancashire – from which yours truly emanated – so if you have time to view more of our sayings take a look at http://www.btinternet.com/~troubleatmill/comms.htm – I digress – anyway Izzy drifted quickly from 4/1 to 15/2 so our fate was sealed before the race. The horse was off the bridle after 2 furlongs (cannot be certain that the whip actually hit the body) and eventually Izzy trailed in 18
lengths adrift of the 12th horse. 40 lengths behind the winner. Now I dont know whether the horse went wrong BUT if it didnt surely an educated
Steward would have had a word. I know the race was won by a major selection of ours in Voortrekker but I have to say that I was dismayed by
Izzy’s performance.

In the evening – knowing the yard – I half expected a win or no show. We got a bit more than a no show. The horse struggled to get out of the stalls and the race was lost at the start. Not even a run for our money.

I know I am repeating myself but the membership has swelled recently as more punters are wising up to take a slowly slowly step to making riches rather than gambling. My point here is this – when a selection has seen a bit of a drift in the betting when originally fancied by yours truly AND takes an unaccustomed lead then warning bells should be ringing. A good case in point was Boskill Cross last night. Drifted from 11/4 to 7/2 AND took the bends very wide so it was clear that we should have looked elsewhere.

Even so we managed a 70% strike rate on the Hughies which is tolerable but it would be good to get a clear round wouldn’t it?

Today is quiet with few opportunities.

Quite a gamble on Burns Night in the 515 but though Ive seen large individual bets – just not too many of them so beware and check price before the off.

Not A day for ew punters on the whole with so many 7 runner events.

It’s been a struggle to find six and the quality of the horses is moderate as I have had to use Claimers etc to find the right frames. Even so we should be OK but watch late betting moves.

Forum. ‘The Learning Zone’ is a good little heading on the Board. Always post there or email me. Sometimes I’m not the best to answer – such as the
Accounting apps post by niprut’ today so if any member wishes to post I am always obliged.

Just one free ‘live blog bet’ today a ‘Hughie’ which is a place bet i.e a bet for the horse to finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd and is played via ‘Betfair’s’ place markets

Gleanntan 850 Sligo (Very promising debut run at Punchestown when with this jockey. Will know more today and can win.) But this is a place only bet.

For access to my full column of bets and trades you will need to join my full service at www.bigmikebetting.co.uk

Good luck with your betting.

Mike

Big Mike’s Place Betting Thoughts

Big Mikes Monday Thoughts

I have been getting quite a lot of interest from people concerning my ‘Hughie’ ‘place bets’ which are played via betfair’s place only markets.

As with all forms of betting we will see dips – highs and lows always expected like the weather – but overall you will do well by following them and as a consequence enjoy your racing more knowing only third spot is required.

Here are the figures until the end of May 2009. Based only on a bank of £400 as well.

To

Oct 1 + 77.63

Nov 1 +129.90

Dec 1 + 14.34

Jan 1 +179.83

Feb 1 +116.37

Mar 1 +169.58

Apr 1 – 3.62

May 1 + 13.81

Jun 1 + 77.78

I really believe that place betting is the way to go as it takes a lot of your gambling instincts away, which to me is most important. You can’t win as a gambler.

You can win by betting. Two poor months – April and June (so far) but over the long run a sound proposition.

Middle of June – Height of Midsummer – of course the planners have us down for 2 x All Weather Meetings this afternoon. Where do we get these people from? Maybe the Back Benches of the Commons.

Yesterdays Awesome was just that with a £135 return at SP. It just shows by finding the right race with outsiders just placing what can be achieved. We must continue thinking outside the circle and to expect the unexpected.

Mike

Each Way Betting on Horse Racing Explained

The main point to understand with each way betting is that basically you are placing TWO equally sized bets one part is a bet on the horse to win the race and the second part is a bet on the horse to place in a race i.e. finishing in the places 1st, 2nd, 3rd or even 4th in some types of races (see table below).

Thinking about Each Way Betting in this way as two separate bets will make it far easier for you to understand each way betting.

For Example

If you placed a £20 EW (each way) bet on a horse in a race your two bets are a £10 bet on your horse to win and a second £10 bet on your horse to finish in the places, so the total cost of the bets is therefore £20. The win part of the bet is fairly easy to understand it is the same as if you had put £10 to win bet on the horse concerned. Explaining how the place part of the bet is settled by your bookmaker is a little bit more complicated and depends on the type of race you are betting in. The following table explains how the bookmaker’s rules for settling each way bets works.

No. of Runners/Type of Race Place Terms
2-4 Runners No Place Betting Allowed
5-7 Runners 1st and 2nd 1/4 of the odds
8 + Runners 1st, 2nd and 3rd 1/5 of the odds
Handicap Races 12-15 Runners 1st, 2nd and 3rd 1/4 of the odds
Handicaps 16+ Runners 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th 1/4 of the odds

As you can see from the above example, races with up to 4 runners are win only (so each way betting is not offered by Bookmakers).

You will also notice that handicap races are treated in a different way. Theoretically all the horses are given different weights to carry. The ‘weighting process’ is compiled by an Official Handicapper and its his job to try to arrange for all the horsesin the race to acutally finish together in a straight line! Therefore forecasting which horse will finish placed is considered a more difficult task (the handicapper may make a mistake with one or two horses but surely not with the whole field.) So for the purposes of Each Way Betting in handicaps the bookmakers offer improved place terms i.e. one quarter of the odds instead of one fifth and in fields of over 16 runners they generally offer one extra place position (1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th).

Each-Way Bet Example

You decide to place a £10 EW bet on Loopylu in the 2.30 at Newmarket at odds of 10-1 (the race is an 8 runner race non handicap, so the EW terms are 1/5 of the odds for 1st, 2nd or 3rd place.)

Your bookmaker will take the £20 stake out of your betting account (remember £10 EW is TWO £10 bets) the first bet is a £10 win bet at odds of 10-1 and the second is a £10 bet at odds of 2-1 (2-1 being 1/5 of 10-1) the second bet is for Loopylu to finish placed (i.e. 1st, 2nd or 3rd.)

Now there are 3 different outcomes for this bet as follows:

1. Loopylu Doesn’t Win or Place

Loopylu finishes in none of the places (1st, 2nd or 3rd) i.e. 4th or worse, so if this outcome was to occur you have lost both your £10 win bet and your £10 place bet so in this case the total loss is £20.

2. Loopylu Places but Doesn’t Win

Loopylu finishes 2nd or 3rd but doesn’t win. There is no difference between 2nd and 3rd; they count as the same i.e. they are both “a place”. So if this outcome was to occur, remembering that your £10 EW bet is two bets (£10 win and £10 place) your win bet of £10 has lost and your £10 win stake remains with the bookmaker. However your £10 place bet has won and your return at 2-1 (2-1 being a 1/5 of the odds) = £30, that’s £20 profit and your original £10 place stake. So the overall profit on this bet is £10 (you staked £20 (£10 EW) and received £30 back.)

3. Loopylu Wins the Race

If Loopylu wins the race then both of your bets are winners as a win also counts as a place (1st, 2nd or 3rd.)

So if this outcome occurs the win part of your bet returns £110 i.e. £100 profit at 10-1 and your £10 original stake.

However the place bet of your bet has also won and as already explained above in number 2., that bet returns £30 (£20 profit and your £10 original place stake).

So the total return in this instance is £140 i.e. £120 profit and the original £20 stake.

Sometimes bookmakers will offer enhanced place terms on races with well in excess of 16 runners, a good example is the Grand National which usually has over 30 runners, and in this instance many offer a 1/4 of the odds for a horse finishing 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th and sometimes even 6th.

Having explained the concept of how Each Way Betting on horse racing works I would like to point out that the placing Each Way Single Bets is only one of my recommended approaches to betting.

So for a more Strategic and Profitable approach to EW betting read my further article on “The Bet the Bookies Fear Most – The Each Way Double”.

Betting For a Living – Is it Really Possible?

Betting For a Living – Is it Really Possible?

Is it possible to make a good living from betting?

Well many betting professionals myself included are living proof that it is indeed possible to do just that, however success as a betting professional requires a lot of endeavour and a long term approach.

Betting for a living is not an easy career path to follow. There will be many sleepless nights and much disenchantment along the way. However provided you have an interest in betting, understand betting principles, are numerate, determined and posses the ability to become emotionally detached – then the goal of betting for a living is achievable.

“Is gambling for a living too risky for the average person?” you ask. Well the truth is, as betting professionals, we don’t really consider ourselves gamblers at all.

We like to think that we are on a par with Investor’s playing the stock market – selecting the right opportunities – when to bet and when not to bet. So operating a safe, reliable and profitable betting business has nothing to do with blind luck or chance; rather, it is the combination of our observations, form study, selectivity and intelligent decision-making. Additionally it is important that you thoroughly understand money management and posses the required discipline to bet with only a percentage of your total betting bank. By following such a course, betting professionals will make a living.

Like any self-employed individual, there are advantages and disadvantages in betting for a living. One of the advantages of this career path is that you have the opportunity to build the new business slowly in your spare time without giving up your day job. This approach will enable you to determine if & when the time is right to become a full time professional. However as with any new venture it will take time and dedication to succeed, so please don’t think for one minute that you are about to become a ‘betting pro’ overnight. Nothing could be further from the truth and you will need to take time serving your apprenticeship, making mistakes from which you will learn, while also becoming the master of your trade and capitalising from the errors you will have made along the way.

Thanks to the proliferation of the online betting exchanges and bookmakers, betting is now a worldwide industry. Thus another advantage of betting for a living is that you can now run your betting business from anywhere in the world and operate with minimal overheads. Finally betting is a truly recession proof industry with downturns in the economy having no effect on the betting exchange markets – even when money seems to be ‘tight’ betting markets are always awash with money.

Of course there are one or two disadvantages associated with betting for a living. Most notably this is tough work psychologically and your lifestyle will change dramatically with no more 9-5 days in the office, instead they will be replaced with long lonely hours, spent 7 days a week in front of your computer and TV screens with no work colleagues to interact with. Secondly, you and you alone will ultimately be responsible for placing bets and trades on the exchanges in order to ensure the success or failure of your financial future.

There are literally hundreds of sporting events available for betting on during any given afternoon and unlike the stock market where it can take days or weeks to receive settlement one way or the other, sports bets are settled within minutes of the event completing – often in minutes.

So your financial outcome is known within minutes of an event finishing. Therefore cash flow is always positive but bear in mind whenever you play a bad bet the impact on the cash flow is immediate, so good money management is therefore the ‘key’ to success in your new career and it remains an essential skill for the betting professional to master.

What really draws people to this profession though is the potential tax-free (in the UK!) return on investment. So just what kind of return can you expect? Anywhere between 15% and 25% of your annual betting turnover would be typical, even as much as 30% in a good year. Losing years are also very rare and I have not personally experienced many in my lifetime and I am now confident I will never experience another one again. I can thank the betting exchanges for that probability. The exchanges offer the professional opportunities for hedging so that we can take profits, reduce losses and maintain that all important positive cash flow.

Clearly for the individual with a strong enough mindset, capable of withstanding adversity there are distinct advantages to making a go of this new career. However it is important to ensure that you have enough capital to commence and also posses the required discipline to use a small percentage of that capital each time you place a bet, then provided you follow strict guidelines betting for a living can become a difficult but achievable goal!

Mike Marsland FCA is the Internets #1 authority on strategic betting techniques. For free honest advice on Sports Betting Strategies and a complimentary download of his football correct score betting Ebook visit http://www.bigmikebetting.co.uk


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