It’s not been a bad few days has it? However today its a typical Summers Saturday card and difficult for us all. The frames are just not for us overall today. I have a few small offerings but very little of substance and sport takes centre billing for me.
McCoy. What can you say? Did you all see the ride on Pinerock? Sure – could have won but one second after AP gave him a tap the horse veered due west and nearly carried two horses with him. McCoy lost his irons but somehow galvanised the horse into finishing 3rd. ‘Ekbalco’ on the Forum informs us that he was 55/1 for a place in running. Staggering man is AP and the best we are ever likely to see.

There was a good letter in the Racing Post the other day regarding NRs in 16 runner fields so I wrote to the Racing Post in support – herewith

Sir

Excellent letter from Alan Merrett. Like the Government the BHA have lost touch with what’s going on out there. Maybe the Racing Post’s condescending response shows that they too, are not understanding punters concerns. Additionally the RP should undertake to have a survey on NRs in 8/9 runner Non Handicaps – with special reference to the timing of the withdrawal AND the reason for doing so. I think the RP would be staggered by the results. There is a lot going on out there totally detrimental to the integrity of the sport.

Sincerely,

Mike Marsland

Today I have had a response from Paul Kealy at the Racing Post.

Mike,

I don’t know whether we have had correspondence before, but it wasn’t my idea to print that brief response to your non-runner query, which I agree was more like a brush-off than a properly argued reply.

Here I will try to explain in fuller detail.

A couple of years ago I set our database the task of looking at every single race in Britain over the previous five years to see if I could find any evidence of a spike in non-runners when each-way betting terms come into the equation. I, like yourself I guess, was convinced there was more to it than there looked. However, not for the want of trying, I could find no evidence that would stand up. Using the full five years of data, we were able to to calculate the average percentage chance of any horse being a non-runner, and from there, the ‘expected average’ number of non-runners per race, which would obviously increase with the field size. We then compared the ‘expected’ number with the actual number of non-runners and the figures were stunningly similar right the way from three-runner races up to 20+. To be able to call into question the integrity of racing we would have needed to see a dramatic rise around the 8/9 and 16/17-runner fields but that wasn’t the case. I’d love to have been able to find something as, like yourself, I am a punter who has no great love for bookmakers, but the stats don’t lie and you can’t cry foul if you can’t back up your argument.

I know you are probably still going to disagree, but the stats suggest to me that we simply notice non-runners more when they affect us.

Regards,
Paul

Please let me have any views you have. My main gripes are :-

a) Bookmakers reduced liability odds on 3rd spot – which should be settled a la betfair
b) The Timing of the withdrawal is also playing into bookmakers hands.

Anyway – any thoughts please let me know.

Just one Live Blog Bet from me today:

A £12 Hughie (A place bet played via Betfair’s place markets on the horse finishing in the places i.e. 1^st, 2^nd, or 3rd)

Jeanie Johnston 220 Newm (£12 to place) – Really attractive filly improving at a rapid rate of knots and must go close today if that improvement maintained.

As always to access my full daily column of bets and trades visit my main website at www.bigmikebetting.co.uk

Mike